NEW YORK – The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Japan decreased 0.1 percent in December to 94.9 (2004 = 100), following no change in November, and a 1.2 percent increase in October.
At the same time, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Japan, a measure of current economic activity increased in December by 0.4 percent to 98.0 (2004 = 100), following a 0.2 percent decrease in November, and a 0.4 percent increase in October.
The Conference Board LEI for Japan continued its slightly upward trend through the end of 2011, after falling sharply in the first half of the year following the March 11 earthquake. Additionally, the six-month growth rate in the index has been in positive territory for the past three months. Meanwhile, the rate of growth in The Conference Board CEI for Japan has also recovered, but the index is still well below its most recent peak reached in the beginning of 2011. Taken together, the composite indexes and their components suggest that despite near term risks, economic activity should continue increasing in the coming months.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Japan
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading and coincident economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading or coincident indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.
The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Japan include:
Dwelling Units Started
Index of Overtime Worked
Stock Prices (TOPIX)
Six-Month Growth Rate of Labor Productivity
Tankan Business Conditions Survey
New Orders for Machinery and Construction
For more information including full press release and technical notes: http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=5
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